Now that both major party presidential candidates have been all but officially selected, I will be spending more and more time on this blog discussing their stands on the issues.  Both current President Joe Biden and past President Donald Trump have huge liabilities.  First of all, they both have negative favorability ratings.  But, more specifically, each of them is very weak on two different but specific issues.

Joe Biden’s liabilities:

• Inflation and the economy. The huge demand created by the $5 trillion in Covid stimulus spending tripped off inflation in March 2021, shortly after Joe Biden took office and signed the $1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan (see chart below).  Average prices have now increased by 20% in the last three years.  Inflation has come down (3.1% in January 2024) but prices are still increasing.  In particular, housing prices are very high because the only tool the Federal Reserve has for fighting inflation is to raise interest rates, which in turn raises mortgage rates as well as the cost of rental housing.

  

• Open southern border. Apprehensions of illegal immigrants at our southern border are now running at 2.5 million per year, (see chart) more than triple the previous rates under Presidents Obama and Trump, and often exceeding 10,000 per day.  This has created chaos both in southern border towns and large northern cities where many of the undocumented immigrants end up.

  

Donald Trump’s liabilities:

• Election denial. Donald Trump attempted to overthrow the results of the 2020 Presidential Election, which he lost, by filing over sixty lawsuits as well as inciting a riot at the Capitol on January 6, 2021.  His efforts are called a threat to democracy by his opponents but met with zero success.  In fact, there were many (pandemic- related) mail-in voting irregularities (such as missed deadlines) in the November 2020 election, but extensive fraud is unlikely.  Mail-in voting unsurprisingly became popular during the pandemic and remains popular today.  Many states have tightened up mail-in voting procedures in the meantime, so such irregularities are likely to be greatly reduced in November 2024.
• Isolationist foreign policy. Trump’s America First agenda appears to imply less involvement in world affairs. The problem with this attitude is that the U.S. has several autocratic adversaries (China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea) that seek to diminish our strength and influence around the world.  For example, Ukraine needs our help in repelling its invasion by Russia.  It is in our own best interest to join with our many democratic allies to support freedom and democracy whenever they are under threat, as is currently the case with Ukraine.

 Conclusion.  Biden and Trump both have major liabilities that weaken their support with many voters.  How these liabilities will affect the November 2024 election remains to be seen.

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