On this blog, I discuss important national issues, often, but not always, relating to economic or fiscal matters.  Sometimes this means presidential policies, good or bad.

Today, I discuss the changing nature of the U.S. middle class.  First, some definitions from the American Enterprise Institute (AEI).  To be specific, for a household size of three, we divide income classes into five groups: the Poor (under $40,000), the Lower-middle class ($40,000 – $67,000), the Core-middle class ($67,000 – $133,000), the Upper-middle class ($133,000 – $400,000), and the Rich (above $400,000).  Other household sizes have appropriately different cutoffs.  Incomes are stated in 2024 dollars, and adjusted for inflation.

Consider:

• First, examine an overall graph of the five income groups, from 1979 – 2024 (see below). Note how each group is changing over time with the biggest growth by far appearing in the Upper-middle class.

  

• Now look at the percentage changes for each group in 1979, 2001 and 2024 (see below). Clearly, the size of the Poor group and the Lower-Middle Class group are shrinking greatly, the size of the Core-Middle Class group is slightly shrinking, and the size of the Upper-Middle Class is expanding greatly.

  

• Finally, look at the percentage change in family income by percentile over the same time period (see below). Yes, the higher the percentile, the faster the family income is growing.  But all percentile groups are growing in earned income, except for the very bottom group.

  

Conclusion.  What is happening overall in a general sense (see middle graph), is that there are fewer households in the bottom two income groups and a huge increase in the number of households in the fourth highest group.  In sum, the number of households below the Core-middle class fell from 54% of the total to 35% of the total.  The overall Middle class grew from 70% of the total to 78% of the total, a significant jump.  In other words, the middle class is expanding in size (and at the upper end).  This is a very beneficial shift for American society overall.

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On this blog, I discuss important national issues, often, but not always, concerning fiscal and economic issues.  Most recently, I made the case that Trump is doing the right thing in Iran. Today, I extend this discussion to Trump’s foreign policy in general.

• Iran War. Iran is a terrorist state and simply cannot be allowed to acquire nuclear weapons.  The current military action should virtually guarantee this outcome for many years to come.  Since 20% of the world’s oil comes from the Persian Gulf, the Strait of Hormuz must be reopened to international shipping traffic before the war ends.  Hopefully, boots on the ground will not be necessary to accomplish this.

  

• Other rogue states. Trump removed Venezuela’s President Maduro without an invasion. He is leaning on the new government to release political prisoners and restore democracy.  Investment by U.S. oil companies can restore Venezuela’s oil industry, but this won’t take place without political stability.  Cuba wants U.S. help to restore its economy.  Again, political reform will be needed to obtain our help.  North Korea is another rogue state, but is highly unlikely to use its nuclear weapons.
• China. China wants to take over Taiwan, but it also wants a U.S. market for its export-driven economy.  If it attacks Taiwan militarily, it will not only lose our huge market but will be sanctioned by the entire Western world.  China is an ideological adversary, but mostly in an economic rather than a military sense. This is especially true technologically, where we are fierce competitors with China for supremacy.
• Russia. Russia is economically weak (ranking ninth worldwide in GDP) and militarily tied down with its mostly unsuccessful invasion of Ukraine.  It does not pose a serious threat to the U.S.  In fact, once the Ukraine war is over, we should try to help it create a stronger economy.

Conclusion.  The U.S. is still by far the strongest country in the world, both economically and militarily.  By cracking down on rogue states like Venezuela, Cuba and now Iran, and being willing to negotiate our differences with China and Russia, Trump is doing a good job in preserving U.S. predominance in world affairs.

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On this blog, I discuss major national issues, often, but not always, focusing on economic and fiscal issues.  I have recently criticized President Trump for letting spectacle get in the way of substance.

Today, I discuss why I support Trump’s decision to join with Israel in attacking Iran’s entire military structure, including its nuclear weapons infrastructure, as well as its missile and drone facilities.

Consider:

• Iran has been spreading terror throughout the Middle East and killing Americans, over and over again, ever since 1979.
• Venezuela was conducting drug trade by smuggling cocaine into the U.S. So we took out the illegitimate president (Maduro) and are leaning on his lieutenants to cooperate in restoring oil production as well as restoring democracy.
• This is the Trump Doctrine and is now being applied in Iran as well. We have taken out the top leadership (Ayatollah Khamenei) and are destroying Iran’s entire military infrastructure.

  

• The operation is rapidly destroying Iranian military facilities (see chart below) and is likely to be completed in just a few more days.

  

• The Trump Doctrine avoids boots on the ground.  We want regime change, but we do not invade other countries to achieve it.
• The Trump Doctrine builds on long-standing American foreign policy tradition. We are not isolationist and we are not imperialistic (looking for land to annex).  But we do intervene in specific problems around the world in order to protect our vital interests and to promote and defend democracy.

  

Conclusion.  In Venezuela and now in Iran, we have shown that we are willing to intervene to protect our national interests as well as to protect democracy when it is threatened.

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On this blog, I discuss important national issues, often emphasizing economic and fiscal matters.  Today I discuss one of Trump’s major failings:  getting carried away by attacking his political opponents rather than focusing on his positive achievements.

Consider:

• Tariffs. The Supreme Court has just struck down his use of emergency powers to declare arbitrary and capricious tariffs on any other country he felt like.  Since most of his tariffs are hurting the American economy, he should be pleased to see his tariffs cut back to primarily national security situations like China.  Instead, he criticizes the Supreme Court Justices who voted against his tariffs.

  

• Closing the southern border. One of the first things Trump did in his second term was to close our southern border to illegal immigrants.  This action was very well received nationally.  But now he has jeopardized that success by cracking down too hard on undocumented immigrants who are both working and law-abiding.  Again, he is squandering the favorable reaction he received from closing the border in the first place.

  

• Encouraging Europe to increase defense spending. Europe has gotten the message that it needs to take its self-defense more seriously. Unfortunately, Trump has aggravated our relations with Europe by threatening to invade Greenland and annex it to the U.S.  He backed off from this threat but not before badly damaging our relations with European allies.

  

• Regime change in Venezuela. Trump removed Venezuela’s dictator, Nicolas Maduro, from office and has let his lieutenants stay in power. This could become a stable transition to democracy in Venezuela, but only if Trump keeps up the pressure on the current president, Delcy Rodriguez.  If this approach works (leading soon to fair elections), it will be a big victory for Trump.

  

Conclusion.  Trump’s unconventional methods are succeeding in many cases, but would work even better if he refrained from both rhetorical excesses and overreacting with excessive force.  If he wanted to, he could be “effective without being offensive.”

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On this blog, I discuss important national issues, especially pertaining to economic and fiscal issues.  Last week, I pointed out that affordability is a real problem for many American families.

This week, I discuss the effects of Trump’s tariff policies, which the President claims are helping the economy.

But, according to other credible sources, this is not really true. Consider:

• First of all, as the chart below shows, note that the effective U.S. tariff rate has jumped from 2% to about 12% in the past year.

  

• Tariffs have pushed up prices, and U.S. consumers are bearing 43% of the tariff burden, with U.S. companies absorbing most of the rest.

  

• Overall job openings dropped in December to 6.5 million, their lowest level since September 2020.
• Both manufacturing jobs and manufacturing job openings are in retreat as the charts below show. Manufacturing employment declined by 63,000 jobs in 2025.

  
  

• There has been a crisis for American soybean farmers who lost their Chinese market.
• It’s not good enough for Trump to say that his own tariffs are merely reciprocal to what other countries are charging us. This may be true, but his tariffs are hurting Americans in the process.

Conclusion.  The Trump tariffs have raised prices for American consumers, and led to a loss of jobs overall, as well as a loss of manufacturing jobs.  They have also destroyed markets for American farmers.  They clearly are hurting the overall economy.

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On this blog, I discuss important national issues, especially on fiscal and economic matters.  Often this means discussing congressional and presidential policies, and where they are succeeding or not succeeding.

Today, I discuss the fact that inflation is still too high and is taking a big bite out of typical worker incomes.  Consider:

• Inflation is up 25% since before the pandemic. It is still rising at an annual rate of 2.7% overall, which is too high.  Of course, many individual prices are rising at a much faster rate.

  

• Affordability is a real problem for many Americans.  In the past year, as the chart below shows, average wages have not kept up with increases in inflation.

  

• Other indications of stress are flat home sales, at a time of housing shortage, and low consumer spending, which indicates consumer caution.

  

• Economic growth is strong, which is, at least, one positive counter-sign.

  

• Trump’s overall job approval is low, which is primarily a result of the affordability problem. He needs to direct more attention to this problem.

  

Conclusion.  Not only is inflation up 25% since before the pandemic, it is still rising at an annual rate of 2.7%, faster than typical wage growth.  This creates an affordability problem for many Americans.  This, in turn, creates a political problem for President Trump, who is currently in charge.  He clearly needs to give more attention to the affordability problem in one way or another, perhaps by backing off even more on his arbitrary and capricious imposition of tariffs.

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On this blog, I discuss important national issues, often centering on fiscal and economic matters.  Sometimes this involves the discussion of congressional and presidential policies, and their successes or failures.

Last week I discussed why I think Americans are so fortunate:  We are strong both economically and militarily, and have individual economic opportunity and mobility as well.

Today, I extend this discussion to include our national security.  Our country is very safe from foreign attack.  Consider:

• Our large size and bicoastal geography with friendly neighbors north and south is a huge natural advantage.
• China, Russia, and the U.S. all have extensive nuclear weapons. But we are very unlikely to use them against each other because such an attack would bring instant retaliation. This is called mutual assured destruction (MAD) and protects us from attack by each other.  If a minor nuclear power, like North Korea, were to fire a few nuclear missiles at us, our missile defense system would likely be able to shoot them down before they hit us.
• Russian GDP, at about $2.5 trillion annually, is no match for our GDP of $30 trillion. Furthermore, Russia has been so weakened both economically and militarily by its invasion of Ukraine, that it simply does not pose a credible threat to the U.S.
• China is our main adversary. It has the second-largest economy in the world (GDP of $18 trillion) and is also a strong military power.  We know that China wants to take over Taiwan, but it is unlikely to try to do so by force.  If it did, Taiwan would vigorously defend itself, and we would help with weapons and military supplies.  Furthermore, such an attack by China would bring massive economic sanctions from the West, which would cripple its export-dependent economy.  China also lags behind us technologically, and is unlikely to catch up anytime soon given our own massive development of AI.
• As I mentioned in my last post, we are neither isolationist nor imperialistic, but we are willing to intervene, on occassion, to defend democracy when it is threatened. This helps to keep democracy strong worldwide.  It is in our own best interest to do this.

Conclusion.  We can never afford to be complacent, but we are the strongest country in the world, economically, militarily, and technologically.  This overwhelming superiority greatly strengthens our own national security.  

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On this blog,  I write about important national issues, often focusing on fiscal and economic matters.  Sometimes this takes the form of congressional and presidential policies, especially how well presidents are succeeding.

Today, I discuss why we are so fortunate to live in the United States.  But we do need to mention some current negatives in our society.  Consider:

• There is much pessimism in America today. Young people are especially pessimistic about their future.  Our national debt, at $38 trillion, is the highest it has ever been, and is growing much too rapidly.  Congress needs to cut spending dramatically but has great difficulty in doing so.  Annual inflation, still near 3%, is too high.  President Trump should be concentrating on increasing real incomes, rather than implementing more tariffs, which just pushes consumer prices higher.

But consider the great overall strengths that our country has. 

• Our annual GDP is $30 trillion compared with the GDP of our main competitor, China’s, at $18 trillion.
• Of the ten largest companies in the world, eight are American.  This generates great wealth for the U.S., which raises the standard of living and improves the quality of life for all Americans.
• Our foreign policy is neither isolationist nor imperialist, but rather occasionally interventionist. As the world’s strongest democracy, we are willing to militarily support other democracies, such as Ukraine, Taiwan, and Venezuela, when their integrity is threatened.  Such support enhances our own security.
• America is the land of economic opportunity.  First of all, graduate from high school, acquire a useful skill, and consider postsecondary education, for either vocational or academic training.
• America is also the land of economic mobility, or moving up the income ladder. Opportunity will knock somewhere along the way.  Be sure you have the right skills and training to take advantage of any opportunity that comes your way.

Conclusion.  In spite of a few current serious problems, the United States has great  economic and military strength that provides overall prosperity and security for our country.  It also offers economic opportunity for those who are prepared (sufficiently well-trained) to take advantage of this opportunity.

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On this blog, I discuss important national issues, often centering on fiscal and economic matters.  Often this involves discussing presidential policies, successes, and failures.

Today I discuss the question of why Trump’s approval ratings have recently been declining, see here and here. Clearly, he is in trouble with the electorate.

Consider:

• Inflation. The latest CPI (Consumer Price Index) rating is 3% for September 2025, too high for comfort.  The Federal Reserve’s credible goal is a CPI rating of 2%, and we’re not there yet.
• Affordability.  (this refers to the cumulative rise in CPI since before the pandemic). This measure of inflation is about 25%, which means that things in general cost 25% more than they did before the pandemic began in 2020.  Of course, most of this increase occurred under President Biden, but we’re now on Trump’s watch, and people who are feeling pain over consumer costs, will naturally blame the current president.
• Tariffs. Trump says that since other countries put tariffs on our exports, then it is only fair for us to put tariffs on theirs.  The problem with this thinking is that tariffs on our imports increase their costs to American consumers, i.e., are inflationary. This is what consumers have to deal with on a day-to-day basis, not abstract arguments about fairness.
• Lowering healthcare costs. Healthcare costs are much too expensive overall, and this is part of the affordability problem.  Republicans need to address this issue with, for example, a plan for individual health savings accounts.  President Trump could help by publicly supporting action on this issue.
• Our Southern Border. Biden made a huge mistake by opening our border with Mexico to large numbers of undocumented immigrants.  But now Trump has overreacted by deporting large numbers of even long-time illegals, including those who are law-abiding and holding down low-paying jobs vital to our economy.  Furthermore, ICE (Immigration and Customs Enforcement) is often perceived as denying due process to those who are rounded up for deportation.
• Unattractive subordinates in important positions. People like Pete Hegseth (Secretary of Defense), RFK,Jr (Secretary of Health and Human Services), and Steve Witkoff (Roving Ambassador) often make public statements that appear to be uninformed and/or misguided.

Conclusion.  In order to head off Republican electoral disaster in the 2026 midterm elections, now less than a year away, President Trump especially needs to do a better job of focusing on core economic issues, especially those dealing with people’s pocketbooks, such as inflation and affordability.

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On this blog, I address major national issues, especially on fiscal and economic matters.  This often involves discussing congressional and presidential policies, both successes and failures.

Last week, I discussed how to achieve economic success in America.  This week, I extend that discussion by talking about what is involved in achieving income mobility, i.e. by moving up the income ladder.  Consider:

• First of all, the essentials for economic success are a good educational background and, also, acquiring some useful skills, either vocational or academic.
• For income mobility, what is needed is both human capital (having adults that children can count on) as well as the opportunity to get a good education.
• The problem in the U.S. is that K-12 educational performance has been deteriorating since about 2013, well before the beginning of the pandemic. See here, and here.
• Unfortunately, educational reform is often not really occurring in the U.S. The best way to improve K-12 education, school choice, is flourishing in the red states and failing in the blue states.  Public education is doing especially poorly in serving low-income kids in the inner city. This means that the Democratic Party is, in effect, increasing educational inequality between the middle class and the lower middle class. Obviously, this sets back income mobility amongst the poor, where it is most needed.

Conclusion.  The opportunity for everyone to achieve economic success in America is one of the great strengths of our country.  Income mobility, moving up the income ladder, is harder for kids who start at or near the bottom.  Human capital is often the luck of the draw, but educational resources, provided by the state, can be improved by enlightened public policy.

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