Most of the time on this website, I discuss national issues independently of the personalities and political dynamics involved.  But, as we draw closer to the 2024 presidential election in November, it is impossible to avoid talking about President Biden and former President Trump.

The Democratic Party pollster, Mark Penn, has recently explained why Trump is now leading Biden in the polls. Consider:

• Biden is being dragged to the left by his policy advisors. He is not reaching out to moderate swing voters with policy ideas.  These voters look for fiscal restraint without tax increases, climate policies that still give people a choice of cars and fuels, and immigration policies that are compassionate to those who are here but close the borders.  The balanced budget remains one of the single strongest measures that swing and other voters want.
• Biden is pushing the Haley voters to Trump. Eighty-four percent of independents surveyed said they supported Israel more than Hamas in the conflict, and 63% said they believed a cease-fire should occur only after the hostages have been released.
• Biden needs to give a serious speech on the issues of crime and immigration and what they are doing to our inner cities. He has to combine policies of fair policing and treatment of DACA recipients with tougher crime and immigration policies.
• Seventy-eight percent of independents polled said they wanted the Biden Administration to make it tougher to get into the United States illegally, but 63% said they ultimately wanted compromise legislation that strengthens the border while giving DACA recipients a path to citizenship.
• Eighty-three percent of voters said they wanted shoplifting laws to be enforced strictly, and 69% said they supported Justice Department intervention against city district attorneys who are pulling back prosecution of violent offenders.
• Biden’s energy policies, especially his push for more electric vehicles, are not popular, either. Fifty-nine percent of Americans said they opposed the mandate that half of cars sold in the United States by 2030 be electric.  In Michigan, Trump has identified a potentially killer strategy by going around telling autoworkers that electric vehicles will destroy their jobs.  Threats concerning the loss of auto industry jobs could directly affect hundreds of thousands of voters in Michigan.

Conclusion.  The 2024 election is a rematch, but Biden should not assume he will get the same result as he did in 2020 in Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and other swing states. This time, he is older, and the assessment of the job he has done is in negative territory.  He could move more to the center and vacuum up swing voters who want to reject Trump.
He has to push back against his base rather than pandering to it and remember that “swing is king.”

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