This blog, It Does Not Add Up, discusses many different national issues, both domestic and international, including political aspects.  I have already started to devote attention to the upcoming Presidential election, and will continue to do so even more as November approaches.  Of course, Trump’s felony conviction in New York creates a huge new issue.  We will soon know, from new polling, how much impact it is likely to have.

Nevertheless, the general outline is clear:  the election is likely to come down to President Biden’s bad policies versus former President Trump’s bad behavior.

Biden’s bad policies:

• The attached chart from Axios, shows that inflation was minimal in January 2021 when Biden took office.  It reached a high of 9% in June of 2022 and has now come back down to 3.4% in April 2024.  This is what economists talk about.  But, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) has risen almost 20% since Biden took office.  This is what people (i.e. the voters) actually experience.  Furthermore, it was the last $1.9 trillion under Biden, of the total $5 trillion in Covid stimulus spending, which tripped off the recent inflation surge.

  

• Open southern border. The attached chart from the Economist, shows that illegal southern border crossings have jumped way up under Biden.  Of course, we need comprehensive immigration reform, but until Congress gets this done, it is the President’s responsibility to enforce the asylum regulations we already have.

  

• Worsening world situation.  Starting with Biden’s disastrous withdrawal from Afghanistan in August 2021, two regional wars (in Ukraine and Gaza) have now broken out.  Does Biden have a plan to deter our adversaries from steps that undermine our security?  If so, what is it?

Trump’s bad behavior:

• Election denial in 2020. Trump filed over 60 lawsuits to try to overturn the 2020 election, without any success.  He also incited a riot at the Capitol on January 6, 2020, to protest the election results.  Although there were well-documented, pandemic-related, mail-in voting irregularities in several states, widespread voting fraud almost certainly did not occur.
• Felony conviction.  His conviction in New York, even though it is likely to be overturned on appeal, demonstrates his often sleazy behavior towards women and others.

Conclusion.  An estimated 70% of voters don’t like either major party candidate.  They will have to decide in November who they think is the least bad candidate between the two.

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