Status Quo on the Budget Is Not Good Enough!

 

As I like to remind readers, I am a non-ideological fiscal conservative.  I am not hard core anything.  I just want to find practical, workable solutions for difficult and complicated problems.  There is basically only one exception to my generally moderate outlook.  I detest huge amounts of deficit spending except for unusual circumstances.  Most of the time we should be willing to either raise taxes and/or cut spending to do what needs to be done and to live within our means.
This is why the current efforts by the Budget Committees of both the House and the Senate to devise a plan to balance the budget, i.e. eliminate deficit spending, over a ten year period is so exciting to me.
An analysis in today’s New York Times suggests that Congress should be content to just extend the so-called Ryan-Murray Budget from 2014-2015.  “Ryan-Murray didn’t decisively move the needle one way or the other, which is why it was able to attract bipartisan support.  Rather it preserved the status quo.  In a world of divided government and polarized politics, keeping the government running without a lot of brinkmanship and high drama may be the best we can hope for.”
CaptureAs I pointed out in my last post, current policy will raise government spending by 5.1% annually over the next ten years.  The President wants to increase spending by an additional $1 trillion over this time period.  The Republican budgets, which lead to balance in ten years, still allow spending to increase by 3.3% annually.  The difference between the two plans is illustrated in the above chart from last Sunday’s Omaha World Herald.
Congress is finally in a position this year to start digging us out of the deep fiscal hole we have fallen into.  Let’s hope that too much “bipartisan” status quo thinking doesn’t get in the way of progress!

It’s Time to Bite the Bullet and Set up a Balanced Budget Plan

As a result of the 2014 elections, both the U.S. House of Representatives and the Senate are controlled by Republicans.  The House Budget Committee and the Senate Budget Committee are now gearing up to produce plans to balance our federal budget over the next ten years.  Accomplishing this goal will be a formidable challenge.
CaptureMaya MacGuineas, President of the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, has recently testified before Congress as to how hard it will be to get this job done.  The gist of her testimony:

  • Even though the deficit has dropped by two-thirds since the 2009 peak, our deficit and debt problems are far from solved, as indicated in the above chart.
  • CBO estimates that under current law the deficit will rise from $485 billion in 2014 (2.7% of GDP) to more than $1 trillion (3.8% of GDP) by 2025.
  • If nothing is done to slow down these runaway deficits, annual interest payments on the debt will rise from $230 billion this year to $810 billion in 2025. Even with a balanced budget by 2025, interest payments will take up $630 billion in that year.

Capture1

  • As the chart above shows, it will require a ten year savings of $5.5 trillion to bring the budget into balance by 2025. Even to reduce the debt to 60% of GDP by 2025 (compared to 74% today), will take a ten year savings of $4.7 trillion.
  • As if this isn’t hard enough by itself, there will be additional “speed bumps” along the way, whose additional one-year costs alone are $210 billion. See chart below.

Capture2Clearly it will require much pain and shared sacrifice to find trillions of dollars in budget savings over a ten year period as well as avoiding additional costly speed bumps.  But the longer we wait to get started the harder it’s going to be to get the job done.  We need to stop delaying and get started on a budget recovery program this year!