Is inequality Holding Back the Recovery?

                

The Nobel prize-winning Keynesian economist, Joseph Stiglitz, claims in the January 20, 2013 New York Times, that “Inequality is holding back the recovery”.  He says that the most important reason is because the middle class is too weak to support the consumer spending we need.  And that the weakness of the middle class is holding back tax receipts.  And that we are squandering our young who are increasingly unable to get an education without borrowing huge sums of money.

Many liberals deplore the slow rate of economic growth since the recession ended in June 2009 and all of the problems it creates and exacerbates such as high unemployment and lower tax revenue to support public services.  What these liberals amazingly fail to understand is that there are tried and true methods to promote economic growth.  What we need to do is to lower tax rates (offset by eliminating tax deductions and loopholes), remove or diminish the enormous new regulatory burdens which have recently been placed on the economy, boost domestic energy production and aggressively, rather than halfheartedly, pursue new trade agreements to lower the barriers to free trade.

Powerful trends such as globalization and computer technology are driving economic progress and causing the inequality which Stiglitz and many others deplore.  We need to embrace these trends and use them to our advantage.  The way to boost the middle class is to boost our stagnant economy in the tried and true ways which have worked in the past.  The way to boost postsecondary education is to recognize that there are many high quality and low cost schools all over the country.  And that it is not necessary to borrow lots of money to get a good education. 

In short, the solution to the urgent and critical economic and fiscal problems we are now facing lies entirely under our control.  All we need are national leaders who have the vision, capability and fortitude to lead the way.

The Myth of Government Default

The moment of truth is rapidly approaching and House Republicans need to crank up their resolve to force a real long term solution to the debt crisis of our federal government.  As David Rivkin and Lee Casey describe in the January 11, 2013 issue of the Wall Street Journalthe threat of government default is greatly exaggerated.  $200 billion in tax revenue is coming into the federal government every month, more than enough to keep making interest payments on the national debt as well as paying many other bills.

Far too many national leaders are in a state of denial about the seriousness of our fiscal problems.  House Speaker John Boehner says that “The American people do not support raising the debt ceiling without reducing government spending at the same time.”  The “Boehner Rule” stipulates that an increase in the debt limit must be paired with spending cuts of equal size over a ten year period.  This is an excellent framework for kicking off a national discussion to persuade the American people to support cutting back spending on entitlements and social programs as well as defense spending.

Every economic unit whether it be an individual, a family, a business, a community or a larger political subdivision, has to learn to live within its means.  This elementary rule of common sense applies to our whole country just as much as to any other social group.  Republicans have the clearest grasp of this basic truth at the present time and now need to exhibit the courage of their political convictions.  The future of our country depends on it!

It sounds good but does he mean it?

In today’s Omaha World Herald, Representative Lee Terry explains why he voted against the fiscal cliff deal just approved by Congress a few days ago.  It is because “raising taxes with little to no spending cuts does not make for a balanced agreement.”

Of course he is entirely correct in this assessment.  But will he stand firm in the next two months as a new deal is negotiated to either implement or replace sequestration which makes across the board spending cuts?  Will he stand firm when conservatives complain about cutting defense and liberals complain about cutting social programs?  Will be stand firm when the AARP complains about cutting entitlements?  We need to do all of these things and more!

House Speaker John Boehner has said that Republicans will be “singularly focused on the deficit and the debt” in the next two months.  But the President has said that he will not “play games” with raising our nation’s debt limit.  Will Mr. Boehner, Mr. Terry and the Republican majority in the House be prepared to withstand withering criticism from the mainstream press if the default deadline grows close without agreement for significant spending cuts?

We are rapidly approaching the moment of truth.  The future of our country depends on the fiscal responsibility of our national leaders.  Let’s hope that enough of them are made of the right stuff!

One Cheer for Lee Terry

Congress has averted the immediate Fiscal Cliff but no significant action was taken to address our long term fiscal problems.  According to the Wall Street Journal, the deficit will shrink slightly below $1 trillion for a few years and then continue its inexorable rise. The can was kicked down the road for two months by delaying sequestration until March 1.  In other words this was a bad deal and Republicans in the House of Representatives should have voted it down and held out for a much better deal.

At least, Nebraska’s 2nd District Congressman, Lee Terry, voted against it.  Speaker John Boehner declared that the new 113th Congress would make the federal debt and deficit its singular focus.  Let’s hope that Mr. Boehner means what he says and that Mr. Terry supports him when the chips are down.

One year ago Mr. Terry voted to extend the payroll tax holiday for two months (annual cost $110 billion) and then voted against a full year extension two months later, after the die was cast.  Shenanigan’s like this are unacceptable and should be interpreted as complacency and deviousness about addressing serious problems.

House Republicans are in an incredibly difficult position.  We’ve just re-elected a President whose basic economic policy is more artificial stimulus (government spending), which just makes the deficit and debt that much worse.  The Republican House is now the sole bastion of common sense economic and fiscal policy.  We have to hold their feet to the fire.  Our survival as a strong nation depends on it.

Is Growth Over?

                                             Is Growth Over?

In a recent New York Times op-ed column, Is Growth Over?, the Keynesian economist Paul Krugman argues that our current information technology revolution may not be potent enough to increase our economic growth rate beyond the American historical average of about 2%.

As much as we hope for a faster rate of growth, let’s assume that he is correct.  In fact our average rate of growth for 2010 – 2012 (since the recession ended in June 2009) is 2.1%.  What are the economic implications of 2% growth indefinitely into the future?  They are slower job growth, higher unemployment and therefore lower tax revenue.

High unemployment is bad enough for the millions of unemployed and underemployed.  But the fiscal implications are much worse because they affect the entire country.  We’ve already had four years in a row of trillion dollar deficits and the 2013 budget projections don’t look any better.  So continuing our present course presents a grim outlook, to say the least.

What are the alternatives?  We have two choices.  One is to boost the private sector with measures like pro-growth tax reform, relaxing onerous regulations, boosting domestic energy production and promoting international trade.  If such pro-growth policies are not politically doable, then the alternative is massive tax increases and spending cuts.

Our first priority must be to rapidly shrink the federal deficit down to zero.  Otherwise we are inviting fiscal calamity which can hit at any time without warning.  Fiscal conservatives should always remain focused on this #1 problem.  If no agreement can be reached for a rational plan to significantly reduce the deficit, then get the job done anyway that is possible.

We have got to wake up the American people to our urgent fiscal condition.  If going over the cliff is what it takes, then so be it!

What do we need to do to avoid the fiscal cliff?

Although Republicans need to be prepared to jump off the cliff, at the same time they also need to make every reasonable effort to avoid taking this drastic action.  Mr. David Walker, the CEO of Comeback America and former Comptroller General of the United States, has described very clearly, on the Politico website, what kind of deal the Republican House of Representatives should be looking for.

In return for raising taxes on the wealthy, the House should insist on two concessions from the President and the Senate.  First of all, there must be an immediate and significant down payment on the spending cuts required by the sequester.  Comprehensive tax and social insurance reforms, a so-called Grand Bargain, would be deferred until a set date in 2013, to give the new Congress time for careful deliberation.  The debt ceiling limit would be raised just enough to get by until the new deadline next year.   A fail-safe hammer would be put in place to kick in if the deadline is not met.

Mr. Walker suggests that the long term goal, say by 2024, should be to reduce debt to 60% of the economy.  This will require an approximately $4 trillion combination of revenue increases and spending cuts over the next ten years.  There would be appropriate interim milestones set up to be met along the way.  My personal preference is to hold out for a balanced budget by a date certain but the main thing is to negotiate an ironclad agreement to put our fiscal policy on a sustainable path.  Anything less will lead to a dangerous fiscal crisis in the very near future, far worse than the present danger of going off the cliff.

Jumping off the cliff with Barack

Washington Post columnist Charles Krauthammer urges the House Republicans to make it clear that they are willing to go over the fiscal cliff if it proves to be impossible to get a budget deal which includes significant spending cuts as well as tax revenue increases.  His most recent column, which appeared in the December 2, 2012 Omaha World Herald, points out that the Republicans have plenty of leverage if they are only willing to use it.

Many economists claim that restoring the Clinton tax rates for everyone, as well as the $110 billion automatic spending cut sequester,  which would be the consequences of going off the cliff, would cause a new double-dip recession with a big increase in unemployment.  No one really wants to take the chance of finding out if this scenario would actually play out, neither Democrats nor Republicans.

With an exploding national debt, caused by trillion dollar deficits for the last four years in a row, with no end in sight in the near future if present policy continues, the Republicans will generate huge public support for substantial, but sensible, cuts in both discretionary and entitlement programs.  Nothing should be off the table, neither further defense cuts nor reforms to all of the big three entitlement programs: Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid.  Republicans will be viewed most favorably by the general public if they do not try to protect any sacred cows in this process.

The biggest cudgel held by the Republicans, is the looming need, in the next few months, to raise the national debt limit.  Republicans should wield this cudgel in an especially visible fashion, and will be supported by the American people for doing so.  This, after all, is the bottom line.  Somebody has to say no to runaway deficit spending, and the Republicans need to make very clear that they are highly committed to accomplishing this urgent task.

My purpose in creating this site

I am so concerned about the federal deficit and the rapidly increasing national debt that I entered the recent Republican Primary for Nebraska’s Second Congressional District. The Primary was held on May 15, 2012 and the incumbent, Lee Terry, was re-nominated.  Mr. Terry went on to win re-election to an eighth term on November 6.

My platform was (and still is) to completely eliminate the deficit. I describe myself as a non-ideological fiscal conservative. By this I mean that I am highly focused on fiscal issues with no particular axe to grind besides cutting spending and increasing revenue through tax reform and economic stimulus.  Even though Presidents George W Bush and Barack Obama are primarily responsible for our huge deficits in recent years, it is Congress which enables presidents to spend money and therefore Congress bears much responsibility as well. My attitude is that any member of Congress who is not actively and clearly providing leadership in cutting spending also bears responsibility for our huge deficits.

At this point, having spent so much time and effort in the political process, I am still highly committed in a personal and emotional sense to addressing this issue. This website will be used by me to continue raising awareness on the very same issues about which I recently campaigned as an active candidate.