- The Democratic House of Representatives will impeach him.
- Since the Republicans still control the Senate until January 20, when Joe Biden becomes president, there may not be a vote to convict, and if there is, it may fail to get the required 67 two-thirds majority.
- It is unlikely that Mr. Trump will be the Republican presidential nominee again in 2024. He has now become too toxic for many traditional Republican voters, who were already starting to leave him in the 2020 election.
But consider his significant accomplishments as president:
- First of all, the focus on populist and nationalist policies such as cracking down on China for unfair trade policies and securing our southern border to keep out illegal immigrants. Both of these policies are directly beneficial to his working-class base.
- The tax reform and deregulation led to the low unemployment rate of 3.5% for several months before the pandemic hit. Such low unemployment means big wage gains for low-income and middle-income workers and increases their economic wellbeing.
- Major reform in foreign policy: withdrawing troops from Afghanistan, Syria, and Iraq and switching focus from the Middle East to eastern Asia and especially China. China is rapidly becoming the biggest challenger to continued U.S. world primacy.
- Aggressively and successfully appointing 200 conservative judges to the federal bench. This will have a long-lasting stabilizing effect on American society.
Conclusion. Of course, some of these significant successes will be diminished by the incoming Biden administration. But this will draw a sharp contrast between the Trump policies and the likely less successful Biden policies. Trump’s free-market reforms will compare well with what is likely to come next. Such political competition will define the national elections in 2022 and 2024.