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Avoiding the cliff and restoring confidence

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New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg has proposed a sensible way forward with an Op Ed column, “Avoid the ‘Cliff,’ Restore the Confidence” in the December 12, 2012 edition of the Washington Post . His thesis is that businesses took on too much risk in the run up to the 2008 crash but now they are sitting on hordes of cash because they lack confidence that our political leaders can come up with a serious, credible plan to reduce the deficit and put our country on a sustainable path to economic growth and fiscal health.

His proposal for accomplishing this task is remarkably similar to that outlined by David Walker and discussed in my previous post on December 10, 2012.  That is, we should adopt the Simpson-Bowles framework, including tax increases and spending cuts.  At least a significant down payment on this plan should be agreed to before the end of the year.  The agreement would include a commitment to enact broader-based tax reform and entitlement reforms in 2013.

With trillion dollar deficits for four years in a row, now going on five, we definitely need more tax revenue as well as large spending cuts.  The biggest challenge in implementing this general framework is to figure out how to raise tax revenue in the least damaging way to the economy.

The tradeoff here is between raising tax rates versus eliminating tax deductions and loopholes.  Democrats (apparently) prefer raising tax rates rather than eliminating deductions.  This is unfortunate since it is well established in economic theory, as well as plain common sense, that the lowest possible marginal tax rates will provide the greatest stimulus to private risk taking and investment. This is the only sound way to create more jobs.

Democrats may have the strongest political position in the current negotiations but the Republicans have the soundest basic economic principles.  If the Republicans are able to keep the focus on the fundamentals, we will succeed in finding the way out of our current predicament.

Jumping off the cliff with Barack

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Washington Post columnist Charles Krauthammer urges the House Republicans to make it clear that they are willing to go over the fiscal cliff if it proves to be impossible to get a budget deal which includes significant spending cuts as well as tax revenue increases.  His most recent column, which appeared in the December 2, 2012 Omaha World Herald, points out that the Republicans have plenty of leverage if they are only willing to use it.

Many economists claim that restoring the Clinton tax rates for everyone, as well as the $110 billion automatic spending cut sequester,  which would be the consequences of going off the cliff, would cause a new double-dip recession with a big increase in unemployment.  No one really wants to take the chance of finding out if this scenario would actually play out, neither Democrats nor Republicans.

With an exploding national debt, caused by trillion dollar deficits for the last four years in a row, with no end in sight in the near future if present policy continues, the Republicans will generate huge public support for substantial, but sensible, cuts in both discretionary and entitlement programs.  Nothing should be off the table, neither further defense cuts nor reforms to all of the big three entitlement programs: Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid.  Republicans will be viewed most favorably by the general public if they do not try to protect any sacred cows in this process.

The biggest cudgel held by the Republicans, is the looming need, in the next few months, to raise the national debt limit.  Republicans should wield this cudgel in an especially visible fashion, and will be supported by the American people for doing so.  This, after all, is the bottom line.  Somebody has to say no to runaway deficit spending, and the Republicans need to make very clear that they are highly committed to accomplishing this urgent task.

Solving our economic and fiscal problems

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“The Election winners must choose between fiscal calamity and compromise” said Robert Bixby, Executive Director of the Concord Coalition, in a blog post yesterday.  “There must be spending cuts, including reform of our major entitlement programs such as Medicare, Medicaid and Social Security.  And there must be tax reform that broadens the base, maintains progressivity and increases revenues.  And all of this must be, and indeed can be, done in a way that enhances economic growth.”

This is an excellent statement of our country’s dire fiscal condition at the present time, put very clearly but in a nonpartisan and non-confrontational way.  It is critical that our national leaders, all of them and from both political parties, focus their full attention and efforts, on solving this problem.  As a highly interested local office holder in Omaha NE, I will be using this blog format to state in a direct and unequivocal manner what action Congress and the President should take in the days ahead to put our nation on a sound and sustainable economic and fiscal track.

Our immediate goal must be to stabilize (i.e. stop adding to) the national debt and this means quickly shrinking the size of our annual deficit until it either disappears entirely, or is at least greatly reduced.

First of all, we need to do a better job of growing the economy.  This will not only put more people back to work, but will also raise additional tax revenue, which will shrink the deficit.  In the meantime, while we’re working harder to stimulate the economy and make it grow, we also need to get started on making huge spending cuts in our national budget.  Let’s cut from programs across the board, especially including entitlements.  This is not only the fairest and most nonpartisan way to attack the problem but will also achieve the biggest overall spending cuts.

In the weeks ahead I will be as specific as I can possibly be on where spending cuts can be made.  I will also try to stay locally focused.  In other words, I will be paying close attention to the Nebraska congressional delegation and what our own representatives are doing on tax and budget matters.  Please consider contributing your own ideas to this forum so that we can work together to effectively address our country’s urgent fiscal problems!