Light at the End of the Tunnel

 

The Bureau of Labor Statistics has just reported very good news in its monthly Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey.  For the first time since 2000, the number of job openings now exceeds the number of new hires, as shown in the chart just below.  This means that wages will start to grow faster as employers have to compete harder for new workers.
Capture1This is an early indication that our economy will likely soon resume a faster rate of growth than its average of 2.3% since the end of the Great Recession in June of 2009.  There will be many benefits.  The unemployment rate should continue to keep heading downward from its current level of 5.5%.  More unemployed and underemployed workers will be able to find satisfactory jobs.  The labor participation rate should start to head back up from its historically low current state.
The Federal Reserve is likely to begin raising short term interest rates sooner rather than later in order to keep inflation in check before it has a chance to heat up.  In other words we may be breaking out of the ambiguous state of slow-growth secular stagnation in which we have been trapped for six years.
All of this is very good news as long as Congress realizes that it is now even more urgent than ever to put our massive public debt of $13 trillion on a downward path, compared to the total economy, before interest rates begin to rise substantially and eat us alive with interest payments on this huge debt.
In this regard the Budget Plan approved by Congress just this Spring, which will lead to a balanced budget over ten years, looks very attractive indeed.  It will be a mammoth job to achieve such a milestone in fiscal restraint, but doing so will lead to a more secure and prosperous future for all Americans.

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