Whither the American Economy? II

In today’s Wall Street Journal the columnist Holman Jenkins, with “The Reinhart and Rogoff Distraction”, writes that “Washington has signally failed to enact confidence-building and growth-inducing reforms that would make its fiscal and monetary stimulus seem less reckless and more like part of a coherent therapy.  The real problem is the incentive of voters and their representatives to stonewall any serious adjustment to the status quo….Hardly has the time been riper for another reform spasm like the Carter-era deregulation efforts, Reagan’s tax overhaul, … The ill-timed Obama campaign to magnify the perversities of our health-care system epitomizes a failure of political leadership to do its part to make the global monetary Hail Mary come off.”
The Republican House can slam on the brakes to try to slow down excessive federal spending but there is not much else it can do by itself.  The Democratic Senate is showing that it can address important but less central issues like Gun Control and Immigration Reform.  But only the President can provide game changing leadership on our fundamental economic and fiscal problems.  His political base of liberals and minorities does not want either spending cuts or reduction in tax rates.  So he proposes spending increases, small adjustments to entitlements, and tax increases on the wealthy.  This amounts to a political posture in order to appear to be addressing important issues without really engaging on them.
What has Obama accomplished?  He has shown that a liberal can be elected President  but can’t govern effectively from the left.  What is the likely outcome?  A stagnant economy with a slowly dropping unemployment rate from now until 2016 when we’ll have our next chance to vote for a reform agenda.  Eventually our rapidly growing national debt will lead to a new fiscal crisis, much worse than the Great Recession which we’ve just been through.  However it probably won’t happen until sometime after 2016.  So Obama is temporarily off the hook, so to speak, but he’ll still catch much blame later on.
Oh well, what is life without challenges!

Are Low Interest Rates Hurting the Economy?

 

The former Chairwoman of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, Sheila Bair, has recently stated that “Low interest rates are hurting, not helping, the economy”.  According to Ms. Bair, historically low interest rates have helped the housing market recover but are hindering business lending, which holds the key to the overall recovery.  “Very low interest rates on your (the banks) balance sheet … is not good for business lending”, says Bair.  She would like the Fed to start increasing rates in a gradual and methodical manner so that the market can adjust.
Even the WSJ’s conventional economics columnist, David Wessel, admits that “big companies continue to build an enormous cash hoard as if they are preparing for catastrophe”.  He says that “Ben Bernanke sees the exit, he just doesn’t know how to get there”.
Current policies for fixing the economy are clearly not working and may be doing grave damage.  There are lots of policy measures which might help, and certainly won’t hurt, such as broad-based tax reform, loosening regulation of small business, aggressively pursuing new trade agreements, visa reform, targeted job training, etc..  Concentrating on implementing such measures is what our national leaders should be doing!