What Happens When We All Live to 100?

 

This is the title of an article in the current issue of Atlantic. Of course, it is a rhetorical question, but it raises a very serious issue.  There are 43 million Americans age 65 or older today and this number is expected to reach 108 million by 2050.  How will society cope with so many more senior citizens?
CaptureThis blog is concerned with the most critical fiscal and economic problems facing our country.  The biggest fiscal problem we have is how to pay for the three major entitlement programs: Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid.  Social Security can be shored up with small adjustments to either the benefits formula or by raising taxes a little bit.  Medicaid can be kept under control by block-granting the program to the states.  But Medicare is a much bigger problem.
Capture1The cost of healthcare, both public and private, is rising rapidly as shown in the above chart from the New York Times.  We badly need a new approach to control costs and Avik Roy from the Manhattan Institute has given us such a plan “Transcending Obamacare: A Patient-Centered Plan for Near-Universal Coverage and Permanent Fiscal Solvency.”
The problem is that, as Mr. Roy explains, “by creating a universal, single-payer health care program for every American over 65, regardless of financial or medical need, the drafters of Medicare made the program extremely difficult to reform.”  But now we have to reform it because the costs are becoming so huge.  How do we do it?
First of all, Mr. Roy’s plan keeps the exchanges created by the Affordable Care Act and turns them all into state-based exchanges.  It also eliminates both the individual and employer mandates, replacing these mandates with financial incentives.
Mr. Roy’s core Medicare reform is very simple.  The plan increases the Medicare eligibility age by four months each year.  The result is to preserve Medicare for current retirees, and to maintain future retirees – in the early years of their retirement – on their exchange-based or employer-sponsored health plans.  In other words, retirees will gradually be migrated to the same system, with the same level of subsidy, as for working people.
Everyone, workers and retirees alike, will be treated the same. Not only is this an eminently fair system, it insures that Medicare remains affordable, for both retirees and the whole country.

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