The Affordable Care Act, aka Obamacare, has dramatically expanded access to healthcare in the United States. But it has done nothing to lower the cost of healthcare which now exceeds 18% of GDP and is steadily increasing.
Warren Buffett, the Oracle of Omaha, refers to medical costs as “the tapeworm of American economic competiveness.”
An excellent plan for improving the ACA, “Transforming Obamacare” has been put forward by the medical economist, Avik Roy. It has five main features:
Repeals the individual mandate and proposes universal tax credits for acquiring catastrophic insurance and setting up health savings accounts.
Repeals the employer mandate and sets up a capped standard deduction for employer sponsored coverage.
Reforms Medicaid by migrating the current system into the above universal (and refundable) tax credit plan
Reforms Medicare by migrating the current program into the same universal system.
Other reforms for veterans, medical innovation, hospital monopolies, drug pricing and malpractice litigation.
According to Mr. Roy, the American Health Care Act, recently passed by the House of Representatives, does a good job in relaxing many of the ACA’s onerous regulations. However it falls down badly by including a flat tax credit rather than a means-tested credit based on income. Such an approach means that millions of low-income Americans, either near retirement or just above the Medicaid cutoff, will be priced out of the insurance market. This is what the Senate bill needs to fix.
Conclusion. Mr. Roy’s plan will not only expand overall healthcare access beyond the level achieved by the ACA but will also dramatically cut the cost of healthcare in the U.S. and even goes a long way towards achieving a balanced budget. Let’s hope that the Senate gets the AHCA proposal back on track.
The Affordable Care Act has improved access to healthcare by already enrolling over 7 million Americans who were previously uninsured. It is estimated that there will be a total of 20 million new enrollees by the end of this decade. But as the above chart from a recent Gallup survey indicates, the cost of healthcare is now a big barrier for an increasing number of people with health insurance.
The University of Chicago economist, Casey Mulligan, discusses the cost issue in a recent Wall Street Journal article “The Myth of ObamaCare’s Affordability” as well as in a new book. He makes the following points:
Although the ACA helps specific populations by giving them a bigger piece of the economic pie, the law diminishes the pie itself by reducing the amount that American’s work and making their work less productive.
35 million men and women currently work for employers who don’t offer health insurance. These tend to be small and midsize businesses with lower paid employees. The result of penalizing businesses for hiring and expanding will be less hiring and expanding.
The “29er” phenomenon is a good example of how the law harms productivity. If a business has 50 or more employees who work over 30 hours a week, it is required to offer health insurance. Many employers have thus adopted 29-hour work schedules which lessens overall productivity.
Mr. Mulligan estimates that the ACA’s long-term impact will include about 3% less weekly employment, 2% less GDP and 2% less labor income. He also claims that these effects will be visible and obvious in just a few years by 2017!
The ACA is thus weakening the economy. For the large number of people who continue to pay for their own healthcare, healthcare is now less affordable.
Conclusion: we need true healthcare reform which addresses cost as well as access and this can be achieved by fixing Obamacare. It is not necessary to repeal it. The Manhattan Institute’s Avik Roy has developed a plan to do this: ”Transcending Obamacare.” Mr. Roy’s Plan would keep the exchanges, end both the individual and employer mandates, and migrate both the Medicare and Medicaid programs onto the exchanges over time. These features will greatly reduce the cost of American healthcare. Check it out and see for yourself!
Our country faces two major fiscal and economic problems:
How to boost the economy in order to put more people back to work.
How to either increase tax revenue or better control spending in order to shrink the deficit.
My last post, “The Great Wage Slowdown and How to Fix It” makes a specific tax reform proposal to cut tax rates for all by shrinking tax deductions for the wealthy. This would put tax savings in the hands of millions of wage earners with stagnant incomes, who would likely spend it, thereby boosting the economy. As the above chart clearly shows, there is only one realistic way to shrink the deficit. We have to do a better job of controlling entitlement spending (Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid.) As a practical matter, this means we have to cut back the cost of American healthcare in general, both public and private.
The Manhattan Institute’s Avik Roy has come up with an attractive Plan for doing just this, “Transcending Obamacare.” Mr. Roy’s proposal is to:
Repeal the individual mandate. Insurers are encouraged to design policies of high quality tailored to individual need. By lowering the cost of insurance for younger and healthier individuals, the Plan will expand coverage without a mandate.
Repeal the employer mandate, thereby offering employers a wider range of options for subsidizing employees insurance.
Keep the exchanges to provide broad access as well as subsidies for those with low incomes.
Migrate the Medicaid population onto the exchanges.
Raise the Medicare eligibility age by 4 months per year indefinitely. Over time this will maintain future retirees on exchange-based or employer sponsored health plans.
By gradually moving the Medicaid and Medicare recipients onto the exchanges, both of these very large populations will receive equal quality coverage to everyone else, delivered in a cost effective manner. Mr. Roy estimates that the Plan will expand coverage by 12 million above Obamacare levels by 2025 and reduce the deficit by $8 trillion over 30 years.
This is the sort of major healthcare reform which we need to get entitlement spending under control!
This is the title of an article in the current issue of Atlantic. Of course, it is a rhetorical question, but it raises a very serious issue. There are 43 million Americans age 65 or older today and this number is expected to reach 108 million by 2050. How will society cope with so many more senior citizens? This blog is concerned with the most critical fiscal and economic problems facing our country. The biggest fiscal problem we have is how to pay for the three major entitlement programs: Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid. Social Security can be shored up with small adjustments to either the benefits formula or by raising taxes a little bit. Medicaid can be kept under control by block-granting the program to the states. But Medicare is a much bigger problem. The cost of healthcare, both public and private, is rising rapidly as shown in the above chart from the New York Times. We badly need a new approach to control costs and Avik Roy from the Manhattan Institute has given us such a plan “Transcending Obamacare: A Patient-Centered Plan for Near-Universal Coverage and Permanent Fiscal Solvency.”
The problem is that, as Mr. Roy explains, “by creating a universal, single-payer health care program for every American over 65, regardless of financial or medical need, the drafters of Medicare made the program extremely difficult to reform.” But now we have to reform it because the costs are becoming so huge. How do we do it?
First of all, Mr. Roy’s plan keeps the exchanges created by the Affordable Care Act and turns them all into state-based exchanges. It also eliminates both the individual and employer mandates, replacing these mandates with financial incentives.
Mr. Roy’s core Medicare reform is very simple. The plan increases the Medicare eligibility age by four months each year. The result is to preserve Medicare for current retirees, and to maintain future retirees – in the early years of their retirement – on their exchange-based or employer-sponsored health plans. In other words, retirees will gradually be migrated to the same system, with the same level of subsidy, as for working people.
Everyone, workers and retirees alike, will be treated the same. Not only is this an eminently fair system, it insures that Medicare remains affordable, for both retirees and the whole country.