“You were given the choice between war and dishonor.  You chose dishonor and you will have war”
Winston Churchill to Neville Chamberlin, 1938

As the chaotic withdrawal from Kabul continues and the Taliban now control Afghanistan, how should the U.S. respond to its disastrous withdrawal?

Mr. Paul Wolfowitz, a veteran foreign policy and military analyst, offers the following suggestions for how the U.S. can recover from this disaster.  Start out by acknowledging the mistakes that were made:

• First, acknowledge that the war on terrorism isn’t over and will last for a long time. Decisive victory isn’t necessarily better than “forever war” if a long commitment can keep America safe at a much lower cost in American lives.
• Second, the rush to get out and the failure to respond to Taliban aggression hastened the collapse of the Afghan army.
• Third, choosing to avoid “forever war” by abandoning our Afghan allies was both costly and dishonorable. We have now lost the Afghan army which was keeping the Taliban at bay with much reduced costs in American lives and money.
• Fourth, it was wrong to disparage the bravery of the Afghans, 66,000 of whom have died defending their country. S. fatalities had been averaging about 20 per year since the U.S. switched to a largely advisory role in 2015.  But now the Taliban victory could reverberate far beyond Afghanistan and inspire terrorists around the world.

Then it is necessary to chart a path forward for recovery from this fiasco:

• First, attend to the safety of Americans, citizens of allied nations, and Afghans now endangered because they assisted in the fight against the Taliban. Do not let the Taliban dictate the terms under which we conduct such a morally and strategically vital mission.
• Second, there now needs to be more visible action and coordination with Japan and other allies to strengthen deterrence in order to forestall an attack on Taiwan by China.
• Third, more needs to be done to assure the weaker Persian Gulf countries that the U.S. will protect them against Iran.

Conclusion.  How can a President who is known for his opposition to the 1991 Gulf War, his eagerness to leave both Iraq in 2011 and Afghanistan in 2021, and his opposition to the 2011 raid which killed Osama bin Laden, admit major errors of judgment with regard to the current situation in Afghanistan and propose a sensible road forward?  It won’t be easy, of course, but the success of Biden’s Presidency; and therefore the near-term future of U.S. world-standing and security, depend on his willingness to bite the bullet and be willing to stand up much more firmly against our major adversaries.

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“If, when the chips are down, the world’s most powerful nation, the United States of America, acts like a pitiful, helpless giant, the forces of totalitarianism and anarchy will threaten free nations and free institutions throughout the world”
President Richard Nixon, 1970

The United States has just been routed by the Taliban in Afghanistan and President Joe Biden is clearly on the defensive.  He has vowed to evacuate all Americans and helpers but they are scattered all over the country.  Will he follow through on this promise?

Equally important in the long run, what is the significance of the loss of Afghanistan to the U.S.?  Consider:

• Both Vietnam and Afghanistan were non-strategic wars. The Vietnam War was not strategically necessary for the U.S. and eventually lost public support. The U.S. went into Afghanistan to destroy Al-Qaida after 9/11 and this goal was quickly accomplished.  A decision had then to be made either to withdraw or to take control of the whole country.  The obvious answer was to leave but the one chosen was to stay.
• Having won we chose to lose. Twenty years later the U.S. had achieved a stable military situation with no combat deaths in the past 18 months.  So, as a practical matter, we could have maintained the status quo indefinitely with a residual force of about 2,500 troops.  Instead, we underwent a chaotic withdrawal and now face the real possibility of having to return in the future to defeat terrorism again.

  

• The chaotic Afghan withdrawal has shocked and angered U.S. allies. Afghanistan was an operation of NATO and America’s allies sent tens of thousands of troops over 20 years, more than 1,100 of whom were killed.  NATO allies were justified in expecting that if that the U.S. were to withdraw, it would do so in consultation with its partners.  Other allies are noticing.  Taiwan’s President Tsai Ing-wen has just warned that “Taiwan’s only option is to grow stronger and become more united, strengthening our determination to protect ourselves.”
• Biden’s Chamberlain moment. The fall of Kabul has been heard around the world, to the dismay of our allies and the delight of our enemies.  A well-executed withdrawal that visibly served a coherent national strategy might have accomplished what Biden wanted.  Nothing is vainer than the hope that somehow the debacle which actually took place will help the U.S. in the Indo-Pacific.  The U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan hands Pakistan a strategic victory which will make life much more difficult for our most important Asian ally, namely India.

Conclusion.  A quick retreat from Afghanistan twenty years ago, after destroying Al –Qaida, or even a well-executed withdrawal more recently, would have addressed the strong desire for no more “forever wars.”   As actually happened, Biden’s disastrous handling of this crucial problem serves only to humiliate the United States.  The Biden Presidency will never recover and it will take many years for the U.S. to regain its lost prestige.

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The United States is in very good shape overall with the world’s strongest economy and largest military.  We have the oldest democracy in the world, still thriving 230+ years after its founding.  We enjoy a robust private enterprise environment with myriad opportunities for individuals to succeed by virtue of their own initiative and willingness to work.

This has mostly been achieved independently of the quality of our political leadership.  We have had a smattering of outstanding presidents during our long history but also a large number of poor ones. (Not to mention any names!)  Our success as a nation is based primarily on the soundness of our underlying institutions, regardless of the quality of any particular president.

Regrettably, nevertheless, our current President, Joe Biden, is making lots of mistakes.  America will most likely continue to thrive regardless, but still, bad policy decisions at the top do slow down our historically steady progress.  Consider the following series of bad decisions by President Biden:

• Overstimulation of the economy thereby risking an inflationary spiral. Already this year, Congress has passed a $1.9 trillion America Rescue Plan.  The Senate just passed a $1.1 trillion Infrastructure Bill and Congress is poised to pass a $3.5 trillion expansion to the social safety net.  Of course, these measures will greatly increase the national debt, already swollen to $28 trillion.  But even more immediately dangerous is the likelihood of an inflationary spiral careening out of control.  Annual rates of increase for the last four months (April through July) are 4.2%, 5%, 5.4% and 5.4%.

  

• Speedy withdrawal from Afghanistan. The Taliban is rapidly capturing provincial capitals in Afghanistan and is threatening the national capital Kabul.  American credibility is already sustaining a blow.  Just keeping a small residual force of U.S. troops would have been enough to keep the Taliban at bay indefinitely.

  

• Open southern border. Almost 200,000 arrests of illegal immigrants were made at the southern border in July alone. Most of these migrants are being released “temporarily” into the U.S.  This surge in border crossings has been caused by the Biden Administration’s unwillingness to crack down on illegal entry into the U.S.

  

• Extension of the eviction ban. The Biden administration wants to further extend the rental eviction ban even though the economy is booming and employers are desperate to find workers.  Many small landlords are suffering financial harm in the meantime.  It is past time to end this emergency measure.

  

Conclusion.  President Biden is exhibiting bad judgement on an increasing number of issues.  The biggest long-term threat is, of course, setting off an inflationary spiral which could careen out of control.  If this were to happen, it could easily lead to a new financial crisis, caused by rising interest rates which would lead to huge increases in the interest payments on our swollen and out-of-control national debt.  His other mistakes, as described above, are also serious but will do less long-term damage.

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My last post criticized Critical Race Theory as being dangerous for America because, if taken too seriously, it would lead to racial regression rather than racial progress.  The same thing is true for the Black Lives Matter movement.  So how does America move forward on race relations?

Let’s start with where we are now and try to visualize how progress can be made going forward:

• CRT and BLM, for all the negative repercussions they can generate, have made one important contribution to racial progress: they have raised public awareness of the challenges faced by African-Americans in today’s society.  They face the remnants of systemic racism in the past which existed up until the 1960s and 70s.  They also face economic challenges resulting from inferior educational outcomes.
• How does America address these challenges? First, we agree that there is a real problem which society should address.  Then, hopefully, we acknowledge that we have to move past CRT and BLM in order to achieve actual progress.  In fact, we need to continue to emphasize the tried and true American values of equal opportunity and individual initiative.   There are many things we can do along these lines.
• First of all, recognize that African-Americans are already making great social and economic progress. For example, 57% of black men have made it into the middle class or higher as adults today, up from 38% in 1960.  The share of black men who are poor has fallen from 41% in 1960 to 18% today.

  

• Secondly, expand public policies designed to boost the economic prospects of all low-income Americans such as:
• Early childhood education. There is a significant academic achievement gap between middle-class kids and kids from low-income families.  An effective way to improve educational outcomes for low-income kids is through early childhood education. This means intensive intervention with low-income kids at least by age three, if not younger, to make sure they are ready to succeed academically when they get to kindergarten and first grade.
• Enhanced economic opportunity. The Brookings Institute and the American Enterprise Institute have put together an excellent proposal for improving economic opportunity for all members of the working class.  What is needed is a social contract emphasizing the centrality of work but also making it more fulfilling for blue-collar workers.  This would include such features as enhanced career education in high school, an expanded Earned Income Tax Credit to boost wages, and increased work requirements for public assistance programs (to provide extra motivation to find and hold a job).

Conclusion.  Critical Race Theory and Black Lives Matter have raised public awareness of the plight of African-Americans in today’s society.  But for real progress to occur, what is now needed are improved educational outcomes and improved economic opportunities for all low-income Americans, especially including African-Americans.  There are many identifiable programs designed to accomplish these goals (see above).

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Since the killing of George Floyd last year in the custody of the Minneapolis Police Department, critical race theory and its key concepts of white supremacy, white fragility and systemic racism have been much discussed in America, see here and here.  CRT maintains that America is an inherently racist nation and that the constitutional principles of freedom and equality are mere camouflages for white supremacy.

So what is critical race theory and what does it say?  The Brookings Institute scholar, William Galston, has recently given an excellent overview.  He points out that:

• Critical race theory denies the possibility of objectivity. “Scholarship is inevitably political.”
• The theory moves race to the center of our focus. It aims to “recover and revitalize the radical tradition of race-consciousness.”
• The theory strongly criticizes the civil rights movement. It is argued that the civil rights movement scored some symbolic gains for black Americans but left their material conditions mostly unchanged.   According to CRT, civil-rights law can mitigate the consequences of illegal and unjust acts, but it can do nothing to redress the continuing impact of past oppression.
• Critical race theory rejects the principle of equality of opportunity. Equality of opportunity is a myth, not a reality, in today’s America, and those who pursue it are misguided.  The real goal is equality of results, measured by black share of income, wealth and social standing.  The metric of merit is unacceptable because merit serves as a repository of hidden race-specific preferences for those in power.
• Race-conscious policies such as affirmative action are diversionary. The aim of affirmative action is to “create enough exceptions to white privilege to make the mythology of equal opportunity seem at least plausible.”  Such policies are an inadequate response to the persistence of white supremacy.
• The anti-racist Ibram Kendi says that “the only remedy to past discrimination is present discrimination. The only remedy to present discrimination is future discrimination.”

Conclusion.  Critical race theory is a dangerous ideology that would take the nation into racial retrograde.  It is one thing to present an honest view of American history in public schools but quite another to focus on the “1619 Project.”  Hiring practices and workplaces should be fair and welcoming to all, but mandatory diversity training, premised on the ubiquity of unconscious racism, is coercive and insulting.  Americans should have no hesitation in opposing CRT and its offshoots.

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As new summer temperature records are being set and drought and forest fires plague the western states, see here and here, climate alarmists are making lots of noise, see here and here.  I have recently argued that both the deniers and alarmists are wrong.

It has recently been reported that the European Union and China are planning sweeping limits on emissions. The EU plan is to increase renewable sources in Europe’s energy mix to 40% in 2030 from 20% today.

China’s plans, however, are designed only to help it attain its previously announced goal (in the 2015 Paris accords) of reaching peak emissions by 2030 and net zero emissions by 2060.  The problem is that:

• Worldwide carbon emissions are still growing even though they are shrinking in both the U.S. and Europe (see charts).

  

• China is still increasing its coal use each year more than the rest of the world combined (see chart).

  

• Given that the developing world intends to massively increase the use of energy to raise its living standards, it will be virtually impossible to de-fossilize the world economy. Much more feasible it is to de-carbonize by emphasizing carbon capture and storage technology as well as more nuclear energy.

Conclusion.  The U.S. can and should provide both technical and moral leadership in reducing global carbon emissions.  But we have to be practical about it.  It is essential to bring the developing world along with us, especially China, as we continue to reduce our own carbon emissions.  This is the only way to actually reduce carbon emissions worldwide and therefore make real progress on this serious problem.

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Last week I discussed a new book, Facing Reality, by the controversial sociologist, Charles Murray.  He says that political polarization is caused by identity politics.  In particular:

• Racism persists in America but it is in spite of the American system and its institutions, not because of them.
• Identity politics is an existential threat to the American experiment. Treating our fellow human beings as individuals rather than as members of groups is unnatural.  Our brains evolved over thousands of years to think of people as members of groups and to be suspicious of people who are unlike us.  This shaped human government, mostly hierarchial, for 10,000 years.
• America proved that a durable alternative to the natural form of government is possible. The introduction of identity politics into that carefully constructed constitutional system means a reversion to the primitive jungle of “us against them.”
• The rhetoric about white supremacy and systemic racism coming from black opinion leaders, and their white supporters, is provoking a strong backlash from middle-class and working-class whites. This is the cause of our current polarization.

But this is not the whole story!  Another sociologist, Richard Alba, is more optimistic about race relations.  His argument is that:

• Many non-whites are assimilating into the American mainstream, just as white ethnic groups did before them.
• The mainstream can expand to accept a visible degree of racial diversity, as long as there are shared understandings between individuals with different ethno-racial backgrounds.
• More than 10% of U.S.-born babies have one parent who is non-white or Hispanic and one who is white and not Hispanic. This is a sign of growing integration into the mainstream by members of minority groups.
• By the 2050s, Mr. Alba estimates that one-third of babies with white ancestry will also have Hispanic or nonwhite ancestry. The idea of who belongs to a racial majority or minority will become scrambled.

Conclusion.  Mr. Murray and Mr. Alba are both correct.  Right now we have a severe identity politics problem which is a threat to our constitutional system.  But, going forward, more and more racial assimilation will take place.  This offers the hope that identity politics will become less predominant as racial identity becomes less pronounced.  The future wellbeing of America depends on this amalgamation of races!

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The controversial sociologist, Charles Murray, has published a new book, Facing Reality.  He claims that the polarization in our current politics is caused by identity politics.  Here is an outline of his argument:

• Racism persists in America but it persists in spite of the American system and its institutions, not because of them. Many of the problems are systemic but they will not be solved by going after racism.  They will be solved by going after systemic educational dysfunction, systemic law enforcement problems, and systemic employment problems.
• Identity politics is an existential threat to the American experiment. If working-class and middle-class whites adopt identity politics, disaster could follow.
• The American system is comparable to a garden hacked out of a tropical jungle. A garden surrounded by jungle is unnatural.  It must be tended with unremitting care lest the jungle return.
• Treating our fellow human beings as individuals rather than as members of groups is unnatural. Our brains evolved over thousands of years to think of people as members of groups, to care for people who are like us, and be suspicious of people who are unlike us.  This shaped human government for 10,000 years.  The natural form of government was hierarchical, run by a dominant group that arranged affairs to its own benefit.
• America proved that a durable alternative to the natural form of government is possible – a constitutional republic combined with a carefully circumscribed democracy. The introduction of identity politics into that carefully constructed constitutional system does not simply distract us from warding off the jungle.  It is the jungle, the primitive sense of “us against them” pressing in upon the garden.
• In 1958 (according to Gallup), 73% of Americans trusted the federal government to do what is right either “always” or “most of the time”. Trust hit a high point in 1964 at 77% and then began to drop.  It was 27% in 1980, rebounded to the low 40s during the Reagan years, then fell to a new low of 19% in 1994.  It rose briefly to 54% after 9/11 and then hit a new low of 15% in 2011.  It has been in the 15-20% range ever since.  Conclusion: a government distrusted by more than 80% of its citizens has a bipartisan legitimacy problem.
• The rhetoric about white privilege and systemic racism coming from black opinion leaders has always seemed self-defeating. Blacks, constituting 13% of the population, are telling whites, 60% of the population, that they are racists, bad people, and the cause of blacks’ problems.  White guilt is real amongst the affluent and millennials but there has also been a huge backlash from middle-class and working-class whites.  This is the cause of our current polarized politics.
• Murray is certain of two things. First, the white backlash is occurring in the context of the long-term erosion in the federal government’s legitimacy (see above), which makes the white backlash all the stronger.  Second, Donald Trump’s election, and the lessons from his term in office, have changed the parameters of what is politically possible in America.
• Murray sees the root problem as the aggressive affirmative action which is being practiced for government jobs at all levels. His proposed solution is to eliminate all forms of government-sponsored preferential treatment by race.  Antidiscrimination law and its enforcement should be limited to behaviors that would be unacceptable regardless of race, i.e. real behaviors, not statistical evidence of disparate impact.

  

Conclusion.  Mr. Murray pulls no punches in his analysis of identity politics.  The data he draws on is well established.  His argument should be taken very seriously by everyone concerned about the future of our country.  I believe that there is a counterargument to Mr. Murray’s pessimism which I will discuss next week.  It is based on one of my previous posts.  Stay tuned!

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Almost everyone deplores the polarization of politics.  Why can’t our national leaders set aside their partisan views and work together for the good of the country?  As Samuel Goldman explains in the current issue of Reason, it is not the politicians’ fault but rather the deep disagreements within our society.  We are a free country with everyone welcome and encouraged to speak their mind.  This enormous diversity of thought, freely and publicly stated, at a time of a deeply polarized body politic, with each side intolerant of the basic beliefs of the other side, makes it impossible to achieve anything like a national consensus on fundamental issues.

Consider, in no particular order:

• Crime is increasing in our largest cities.  The five cities (Austin, New York, Minneapolis, Seattle and Denver), all with progressive leadership, which cut police spending the most in 2020, saw murders spike over the past year.  It is mainly white urban elites who are obsessed with police injustice and relatively indifferent to street violence (from which they are immune).
• Jack Philips, the Lakewood CO baker who is morally opposed to homosexuality and transgenderism, has now been hauled into court twice for refusing to bake custom cakes for a gay couple and a transgender woman. Why is the left-wing so intolerant of traditional morality that it insists on intimidating ordinary working people who refuse to kowtow to the LGBTQ agenda?
• Vice-President Kamela Harris at the border. The progressive left wants a “humanitarian” immigration policy, i.e. a southern border which is so open that almost everyone crossing illegally into the U.S. is allowed to stay.  Don’t progressives realize that we can’t let everyone into the U.S?   It will be impossible to solve our existing illegal immigrant problem without first closing the southern border so that future immigrant entry into the U.S. is carefully controlled.
• Voting Rights. The progressives now largely in control of Congress want a federal takeover of election procedures.  This is clearly unconstitutional since election procedures are a state prerogative.  The Biden Justice Department has filed suit to overturn Georgia’s new voting law which actually has no racial bias.  The federal lawsuit represents preposterous interference with a basic state right.

Conclusion.  These are just a few examples of how the progressive left is promoting policies and actions which fly in the face of common sense and are highly disrespectful of ordinary traditional American values.  When a small minority of elites is pushing such a radical agenda, it is foolish to think that any sort of national unity can be achieved.

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As the number of new daily coronavirus infections continues to drop lower and lower, it is time for America to return to work.  Consider:

• Some 80% to 85% of American adults are now immune to the virus.  More than 64% have received at least one vaccine dose and, of those who haven’t, roughly half have natural immunity from prior infection. With more than 8 in 10 adults protected from either contracting or transmitting the virus, it can’t readily propagate by jumping around in the population.  In other words, we have achieved herd immunity!
• The danger in underestimating or disregarding the protection provided by this “natural immunity” is that it will delay the full reopening of the economy and prolong the state of fear that has many people still wearing masks even when there is no reason to do so.
• At the same time, job openings hit a record of 9.3 million at the end of April.  Especially high are new job postings in construction, production and manufacturing, loading and stocking, but even food preparation and service as well as hospitality and tourism are showing big rebounds.
• The federal unemployment bonus of $300 per week was a bad idea to begin with.  Now it is encouraging too many workers to delay going back to work.  It should be ended as soon as possible.

  

• The current inflation rate is now 5%, up from 4.2% in April. The severe worker shortage is damaging our booming economy by increasing inflation faster than necessary.
• Workers are gaining more leverage over employers all the time. This shift builds on changes already underway in the tight labor market preceding the pandemic, when the unemployment rate was 4% or lower for two straight years.
• The demographic picture is not becoming any more favorable for employers. Population growth for Americans between ages 20 and 64 turned negative last year for the first time in the nation’s history.
• Higher wages are already on the way. The most recent jobs report showed that average hourly earnings for non-managerial workers were 1.3% higher in May than two months earlier.

Conclusion.  The U.S. has been very fortunate to have effective vaccines for Covid-19 developed so quickly.  We have now achieved herd immunity and are largely able to resume our pre-pandemic normal lives.  The huge number of current job openings, with rising wages, means that there are excellent career opportunities for millions of Americans who are willing to take the initiative to search them out.

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