Category Archives: economic growth

How to Get Our Economy Back on Track III. Tax Reform

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Both political parties, both presidential candidates, most prominent economists and economics journalists, in other words, most opinion makers, favor faster economic growth. I have had several recent posts on this topic, here and here, pointing out especially the need to increase the rate of growth of worker productivity which in turn is heavily influenced by the rate of new business investment.
One of the most valuable policy changes in this respect is tax reform, with lower marginal rates paid for by closing loopholes and shrinking deductions. The Republican House of Representatives has developed an excellent plan, “A Better Way,” which includes such extensive tax reform.

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The American Enterprise Institute has recently analyzed the House plan and describes the positive impact it would have on our economy:

  • Simplification. The seven current individual tax rates would be reduced to just three: 12%, 25% and 33%. All deductions would be eliminated except for mortgage interest and charitable contributions. The standard deduction would be almost doubled. A 50% exclusion for capital gains, dividends and interest income would lower those tax rates in half.
  • Business taxes. The corporate tax rate would be cut from 35% to 20%, again by eliminating most deductions, and a territorial system adopted whereby taxes are only paid in the country where business is conducted. Immediate expensing for new investment would replace multiyear depreciation.
  • Effects. Base broadening by eliminating deductions will add 6.5 million new taxpayers. The number of taxpayers taking the standard deduction will increase by 37 million (from 70% to 95%). Total tax revenue will decrease by $227 billion over ten years. The effective marginal tax rate is slightly lower for most income groups.

Conclusion. The overall lower tax rates will boost economic growth. The ten year loss of tax revenue, while relatively small, is still a detriment and should be eliminated by shrinking the remaining mortgage interest deduction (which primarily benefits the wealthy).

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How to Get Our Economy Back On Track II. Entrepreneurship!

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As many commentators, including myself, have pointed out, we need faster economic growth in order to create more and better paying jobs and also to bring in more tax revenue to shrink our huge budget deficits.
The rate of economic growth equals the growth of labor productivity plus the growth of employment.  The problem is that both productivity growth and the labor force participation rate have dropped steeply in recent years.

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As I have pointed out in previous posts, the U.S. economy has become less entrepreneurial in recent years in the sense that there are now more firms going out of business than new firms going into business.
An article in yesterday’s Wall Street Journal has another way of looking at this.  The rate of startup formation has been declining in the U.S. for decades (as shown just below). It is obvious that figuring out how to boost entrepreneurship would do a lot to spur economic growth.

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This can be accomplished with:

  • General growth measures.  Tax reform (lower marginal rates paid for by shrinking deductions), regulatory reform and simplification, maximum free trade to open markets, immigration reform to bring in more skilled workers, entitlement reforms to prevent a debt explosion.
  • Business tax incentives. Immediate write-off (i.e. expensing) of business investment. This encourages more investment by eliminating the need for depreciation over an arbitrary number of years. It is paid for by eliminating the deduction for interest expense to finance such investment.

Conclusion. Lots of voices are saying that technological innovation is slowing down and that only fiscal stimulus by the government can speed up growth.  Such pessimistic views will predominate unless the private sector is given the tools it needs to achieve growth in the most productive way.

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The Need for Regulatory Reform

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One of my favorite topics is the need for faster economic growth in order to create more jobs and better paying jobs and also to bring in more tax revenue to help shrink our rapidly accumulating national debt.
My last post discusses vivid evidence from the economist John Taylor that slow productivity growth is one of the main culprits holding back our economy.  He suggests several ways of speeding up productivity growth, one of which is regulatory reform.

capture74Two previous posts, here and here, show the increasing size of the regulatory burden as well as how it could be eased significantly for main street banks, for example, by simplifying the Dodd-Frank Act.
A recent study from the Mercatus Center at George Mason University gives a good overall summary of the economic costs of excessive regulation.  In particular:

  • Deterring growth. By distorting the investment choices that lead to innovation, regulation has caused a considerable drag on the economy, amounting to an average reduction of 0.8% in the annual growth rate of the US GDP. This has resulted in an economy which is $4 trillion smaller in 2012 than it could have been without such regulatory accumulation.
  • Increasing prices. Increases in the total volume of regulations are strongly associated with higher prices. This affects lower-income households harder than higher-income households.
  • Distortion of labor market. Regulation adds to costs, increasing prices for regulated goods and services and therefore reducing the amounts being bought and sold. As production declines, so does the demand for workers engaged in production. In addition, more regulation leads to a shift of workers from production to regulatory compliance, reducing overall economic efficiency.
  • Decline in competition. Existing firms benefit from regulation because it deters new market entrants, thereby reducing the number of small firms, which are responsible for most new hiring.

Conclusion. Federal regulations have accumulated over many decades, resulting in a system of duplicative, obsolete, conflicting and even contradictory rules. The consequences to the workers, consumers and job creators who drive economic growth and prosperity are considerable.

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How to Get Our Economy Back On Track

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My last several posts have expressed dissatisfaction with both presidential candidates and the hope that whoever wins in November (very likely Hillary Clinton) will work with the Republican House of Representatives to implement its “A Better Way” plan for national renewal.
In particular, faster economic growth would produce more jobs and better paying jobs and hence is highly desirable.  As many people, including myself,  have pointed out, it is low productivity growth caused by low business investment, which is largely responsible for slow economic growth.
The economist John Taylor has an excellent analysis of this problem.  He points out that the rate of economic growth equals the growth of labor productivity plus the growth of employment.

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He then shows that:

  • Productivity growth slowed from the mid-1960s until the early 1980s, then increased until the mid-2000s, and has slowed way down in the past ten years.
  • The labor force participation rate has dropped dramatically since the Great Recession but only a small part of this drop off was caused by demographic trends (i.e. more retirees).

    capture72Such relatively long cycles of productivity growth and decline (longer than normal business cycles) suggests that government policy is having a major effect on economic performance. According to Mr. Taylor, what is needed is:

  • Tax reform to lower tax rates to improve incentives for work and investment.
  • Regulatory reform to prevent regulations which fail cost-benefit tests.
  • Free trade agreements to open markets.
  • Entitlement reforms to prevent a debt explosion.
  • Monetary reform to restore predictability in financial markets.

Conclusion. Mr. Taylor makes a very strong case that faster economic growth is not only possible but even achievable in the short run if our national leaders would just make some common sense policy changes.

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How to Get Our Country Back On Track

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In my last two posts, here and here, I have said that I like some of Donald Trump’s policy ideas but he is too personally repugnant for me to support and vote for.  Hillary Clinton is morally less objectionable than Mr. Trump but her economic policy proposals are unlikely to have much success.
capture66The best hope for our country is to keep the Republicans in control of the House of Representatives.  They have put together an excellent plan, “A Better Way,” for reviving the American economy and boosting the American spirit.  Its main principles are:

  • Poverty. Every capable person is expected to work or prepare for work. Poverty fighting programs will be directed to get people back on their feet. The poor will have more opportunities to succeed at every stage.
  • National Security. It is a top priority to defeat radical Islamic extremism. We must restore American influence, advance free enterprise and expand the community of free nations.
  • The Economy. We need to take a smarter approach that cuts down on needless regulations while making the rules we do need more efficient, especially for our small businesses.
  • The Constitution. Agencies and bureaucracies should be subject to more scrutiny from Congress. Give Congress more say – and the final word – over what is being spent and why it is being spent.
  • Health Care. Individuals should have more control and more choices in order to improve quality and lower costs. No one should have to worry about having coverage taken away regardless of age, income or medical conditions.
  • Tax Reform. The tax code should be simpler, fairer and flatter while remaining progressive. It should be constructed to create jobs, raise wages and expand opportunity for all Americans.

Conclusion. These principles are widely supported by almost all Republicans in Congress and are more important than specific differences on immigration, trade, or entitlement policy.  Their serious consideration depends upon returning a Republican controlled House in 2017.

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How Will Hillary Clinton Do on the Economy?

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With Donald Trump dropping in the polls, whirling out of control and unwilling to withdraw from the race, my attention now turns to Hillary Clinton and what she is likely to do as President. I divide this discussion into good news and bad news.

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First the good news:

  • A leading democratic economist, Larry Summers, is on record as strongly supporting faster economic growth.  However, he seems to think that public investment (i.e. more public spending) is the best way to achieve this.
  • The House of Representatives is likely to remain in Republican hands after the 2016 election, even if the margin of control is reduced. The Republican House has an excellent plan to boost economic growth and presumably will be able to bargain for pro-growth policies.

Unfortunately, the current Clinton tax plan is anti-growth. As analyzed by the Tax Foundation, her plan would:

  • Give individuals with an AGI over $5 million a 4% tax surcharge. Taxpayers with an AGI of $1 million or more would pay a 30% minimum tax (Buffett Rule). Carried Interest would be taxed at ordinary income rates. Short term capital gains would be taxed at higher rates up to 39.6%. Most itemized deductions would be capped at a tax rate of 28%. Taxes on small businesses and startups would be reduced.
  • Lead to a 2.6% overall lower level of GDP which would lead to lower levels of wages and jobs.
  • Raise $1.4 trillion in new revenue over the next decade on a static basis which would only really produce $663 billion because of slower growth.
  • Devote all of the new revenue to new spending programs and therefore achieve no deficit reduction and more likely an increase in annual deficits.

Conclusion. The Clinton tax plan has some attractive features such as reducing taxes on small business. But overall it would slow economic growth in the name of reducing income inequality.  A Republican House in the new Congress would likely be able to bargain for a much better plan.

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Donald Trump Should Withdraw from the Presidential Race

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Like many other fiscal conservatives I have been overlooking Donald Trump’s moral failings in hopes of electing a president who would be able to disrupt our current economic stagnation and move the U.S. towards faster growth which is the only way to achieve broad-based prosperity.
capture72But at some point we all have to say that enough is enough and the appearance last week of the video with lewd remarks about women is the tipping point for me.  Even though I can no longer support or vote for Mr. Trump, I would like to summarize where I agree (and disagree!) with him on various issues. In decreasing order of importance:

  • Massive Debt. Mr. Trump at least talks about our almost $20 trillion national debt (and large annual deficits) even though he has made no proposals to deal with this problem. Mrs. Clinton has shown even less interest in this issue.
  • Tax Reform. Mr. Trump wants to lower tax rates for both individuals and corporations in order to stimulate economic growth. This is a very good idea as long as the tax rate cuts are made revenue neutral by closing loopholes and shrinking deductions. The Republican House has an excellent plan, “A Better Way” to accomplish just this. Hillary Clinton talks far more about economic inequality than about growth.
  • Regulatory Reform. Mr. Trump specifically mentions both the ACA and Dodd/Frank as being harmful to economic growth whereas Mrs. Clinton defends them.
  • Trans-Pacific Partnership trade deal. Mr. Trump opposes both TPP and NAFTA. Fair trade deals create more jobs than they destroy. Furthermore they produce lower priced products for everyone which boosts the economy. Wage insurance and better retraining programs will help those who lose their jobs due to foreign competition.
  • Immigration Reform. We need to solve our illegal immigration problem and Mr. Trump would probably be able to accomplish this, one way or another.

Conclusion. At this point it is pretty clear that Mrs. Clinton will be our next president. If the Republicans retain control of the House of Representatives, and she is willing to work with them, there is at least a chance to make progress on the growth issue.

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The Obama Economic Record

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The readers of this blog know that I focus on what I consider to be the two biggest problems affecting our economy: 1) slow growth averaging just 2% per year since the end of the Great Recession and 2) our massive debt now equal to 75% of GDP (for the public part on which we pay interest) and predicted to keep growing steadily under current policy.
I have also made it clear that I am not pleased with the economic policies of either of the two main candidates for president, Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump.  Whichever one of them is elected, our best hope for the future is that she or he will have to work with the Republican House of Representatives which has an excellent plan, “A Better Way,”  for renewal.
capture71But, of course, the next president will take up where Barack Obama has left off.  The current issue of the Economist has an essay, “The Way Ahead,” in which Mr. Obama identifies several challenges:

  • Boosting productivity growth. The above chart from his essay shows how much productivity growth has declined in the last ten years. He claims that the corresponding lack of investment is caused by an anti-tax ideology which rejects new funding for public projects, which in turn can be blamed on a fixation on deficits in spite of our skyrocketing debt problem. The House plan correctly identifies tax and regulatory reform as what are needed for progress.
  • Combatting rising inequality. An expanded Earned Income Tax Credit will definitely help here but mainly what is needed is overall faster economic growth.
  • Insuring that everyone who wants a job can get one. Wage insurance and better retraining programs for laid off workers are good ideas. But again, faster economic growth is what is really needed.
  • Building a resilient economy which is primed for future growth. Mr. Obama says that “America should also do more to prepare for future shocks before they occur.” This is exactly why we urgently need to start shrinking our debt now before the shock of higher interest rates leads to huge increases in interest payments on our rapidly growing debt.

Conclusion. Let’s give Mr. Obama credit for avoiding another depression after the Financial Crisis. But his poor policies are to blame for the very slow rate of recovery ever since.

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Fiscal Irresponsibility: Our Country’s Most Fundamental Problem

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As a fiscal conservative, I am worried about our nation’s future. The public debt (on which we pay interest) is now 75% of GDP, the highest level since right after WWII, and growing steadily.  Furthermore, our economy has just barely recovered from the Great Recession and is expanding too slowly to revive widespread prosperity.  Neither of the two main presidential candidates, Hillary Clinton nor Donald Trump, is talking seriously about our huge debt and neither has a credible plan to boost economic growth.

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The above chart from the Heritage Foundation is a vivid way of illustrating this problem:

  • Already entitlement spending (Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid), and interest payments on our debt, use up 2/3 of all federal tax revenue. And spending on each of these entitlement programs is growing faster than the economy as a whole. Interest rates will eventually rise from their current rock bottom level. When this happens, interest payments on our growing debt will increase rapidly.
  • In 2032, just 16 years from now, spending on entitlements and interest payments is projected to consume all federal tax revenues, assuming a steady 18% of GDP level for tax revenue.

There are three possible ways to offset this bleak picture:

  • Speed up economic growth. This should, of course, be possible but it will take a major shift in thinking to accomplish.
  • Increase federal tax revenue. Suppose that federal tax revenues were raised by 1% of GDP, or $180 billion per year. This would at least temporarily put our debt on a downward path (as a percentage of GDP). But it would be very hard to accomplish politically. Mrs. Clinton, for example, has proposed raising taxes by $100 billion per year which she wants to spend entirely on new programs rather than reducing our annual deficits.
  • Reform entitlement programs. This is by far the best way to address our debt problem, and the only effective way in the long run.  But, again, it will be very hard to accomplish politically.

Conclusion. If the U.S. cannot get its debt and slow growth problems under control, it risks losing its status as the world’s major superpower. This would be a calamity for both our own national security and the peace and stability of the entire world.

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Why Is U.S. Economic Growth So Slow?

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In a recent post I discussed the issue of slow economic growth in the U.S. and why it is so harmful and dangerous to our nation’s future.  In short, it not only deprives many citizens of a more prosperous life and makes it more difficult to shrink our annual budget deficits, but it also endangers our national security as our chief competitor, China, grows faster than we do.
In the long run, an economy can expand only at a rate sustained by the growth of its labor force and the productivity of its workers.  I have previously pointed out  that there are far too many prime working age men who are unemployed.
capture67Today let’s talk about the rate of productivity growth (see the above chart).  In particular:

  • From 1994 – 2003, U.S. output per hour worked rose annually by an average of 2.8%.  Since then it has grown at an annual rate of 1.3%, including just 0.4% since 2011.
  • Business capital spending is down as companies are spending their profits to buy back stock rather than making new investments (see second chart).

    capture69As I have previously discussed, the U.S. is now caught in a vicious trap:

  • Slow growth keeps the under-employment level (U6) high and also means minimal raises for employed workers  The resulting economic slack leads to
  • Low Inflation. But low inflation in turn means that the Federal Reserve can maintain
  • Low Interest Rates to try to encourage borrowing. But an unfortunate side effect of low interest rates is that Congress can borrow at will and run up huge deficits without really having to worry about paying interest on this “free” money. This leads to
  • Massive Debt. But what is going to happen when inflation does eventually take off and the Fed is forced to raise interest rates? Then we will be stuck with huge interest payments on our accumulated debt. When this happens, interest payments plus ever growing entitlement spending will eat up most, if not all, of the federal budget. This will inevitably lead to a severe
  • Fiscal Crisis.

    Conclusion.     It is absolutely imperative to speed up economic growth.
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